Market Rules

Clear question

State exactly one thing that will be checked, in one sentence, with the subject, the threshold, the deadline and the source all present.

Binary outcome

Every market has exactly two outcomes, YES and NO. If your question has three possible answers, split it into separate markets.

Defined time period

• Give an explicit closing date and time.
• Always state the timezone, UTC is preferred.
• Do not use vague windows such as “soon”, “this season” or “by year-end” without a date.

Objective criteria

Anyone reading the rules after the event must reach the same conclusion. Define thresholds numerically, define inclusive or exclusive comparisons, and define what counts as the observed value.

Resolution source

• Name one primary source that is publicly accessible at resolution time.
• Give a fallback if the primary source is unavailable.
• Do not use paywalled, private or user-generated sources as the sole source.
• Do not use a source you control.

Timezone

State the timezone of every date in the rules. If the source publishes in local time, say so explicitly and give the UTC offset used.

Cancelled or postponed events

Say up front what happens if the event is cancelled, postponed beyond the closing time, or rescheduled. For example: postponement past the closing time resolves NO, or makes the market invalid.

Data corrections

Specify whether the first published figure or a later revision governs, and a cut-off after which revisions are ignored.

Ambiguous results

Where the source is unclear, the rules as written govern. Resolvers should not fill gaps with intent that was never written down, which is why unclear markets end up invalid.

Invalid markets

• Criteria are ambiguous or self-contradictory.
• The resolution source no longer exists or never published the value.
• The underlying event cannot occur.
• The outcome cannot be objectively determined from the rules.

Invalid markets settle according to the protocol and resolver rules, not by discretionary decision.

Duplicate markets

Duplicates fragment liquidity. Near-identical markets may be hidden or de-ranked in the interface; the earlier or more liquid market is normally preferred.

Resolution timing

After a market closes, an outcome can be proposed with a bond, followed by a challenge window before finalisation. Set closing times that leave room for the source to publish before resolution is attempted.

Dispute process

Any participant may challenge a proposed outcome within the challenge window by posting a bond, which escalates the market for further determination under the resolver's rules.

Creator responsibilities

• Write the rules you would want to be traded against.
• Seed enough liquidity to make the market usable.
• Monitor your market and propose resolution promptly when the outcome is known.
• Expect your quality score and creator history to reflect the markets you write.