Risk Disclosure

Trading risk

Every position is a bet on an uncertain outcome priced by other traders. Being right about the world is not enough, timing, entry price and fees all determine your result.

Complete loss of a position

If a market resolves against your side, your outcome tokens for that side become worthless. The loss is the full amount you paid for them, and it is not recoverable.

Liquidity risk

Markets here are seeded by their creators and by liquidity providers. A thin market may be impossible to exit at a reasonable price, or at all, before resolution.

Volatility

Implied probabilities can move violently on news, on a single large trade, or on rumour. A position that looked safe can be deeply underwater within minutes.

Slippage and price impact

Trades execute against an automated market maker, so your own order moves the price. Larger trades receive worse average prices. Setting a wide slippage tolerance increases the chance of an unfavourable fill.

Oracle and resolver risk

Resolution depends on a resolver contract and on humans posting bonded outcomes. Resolvers can be slow, wrong, unavailable, or economically attacked.

Resolution risk

Rules can be ambiguous, sources can disappear, and events can be cancelled. A market you expected to win can resolve the other way or be declared invalid.

Creator risk

Anyone can create a market. Questions may be poorly written, deliberately misleading, or duplicated. Read the rules and check the creator's history before trading.

Smart contract risk

The protocol is code. Bugs, integration errors and economic exploits can cause partial or total loss of collateral, including funds that are not yours.

Arc network risk

The protocol currently runs on Arc Testnet. Test networks can be reset, halted, reorganised or deprecated, and test funds have no monetary value.

USDC and stablecoin risk

Collateral is USDC. A stablecoin can lose its peg, be frozen at the issuer's discretion, or become non-redeemable, which would affect every position and every pool.

Wallet risk

You alone hold your keys. Lost keys, malicious signatures, unlimited token approvals and phishing sites are among the most common causes of loss in practice.

Third-party risk

Wallets, RPC providers, hosting, explorers and data sources can fail or serve incorrect data, which can lead to bad trades or failed transactions.

Regulatory risk

The legal treatment of prediction markets differs by jurisdiction and is changing. Access may be restricted, and your use may be unlawful where you are, that determination is yours to make.

Tax risk

Gains, losses and creator fees may be taxable events. The Platform provides no tax reporting and no tax advice.

Market manipulation risk

Prices in small markets can be pushed by participants with more capital than you, including the creator. Monitoring exists, but it is not a guarantee of fair pricing.

Interface availability

The interface can be unavailable exactly when you want to trade or claim. The contracts remain reachable directly on chain, which requires technical skill.

Only risk what you can lose