Learn
How it works
Kairo is a permissionless prediction market on Arc. Collateral is USDC, positions are YES/NO conditional tokens, and pricing comes from an automated market maker, no order book, no custody.
- Version
- 1.0
- Effective
- 2026-09-06
- Last updated
- 2026-09-06
The lifecycle
- A creator deploys a market: question, rules, topic, closing time, seeded USDC liquidity and a bond.
- Traders buy YES or NO with USDC. Each trade moves the implied probability.
- The market closes at its resolution time and trading stops.
- An outcome is proposed with a bond, then a challenge window opens.
- If unchallenged, the outcome finalises on chain.
- Winning positions are redeemed for USDC by their holders.
What the prices mean
A YES price of $0.63 means the market implies roughly a 63% chance of YES. If YES wins, each YES token redeems for $1.00 of collateral; if it loses, it is worth nothing.
Buy YES at $0.63
You pay $0.63 per token. A win returns $1.00 per token; a loss returns nothing.
Buy NO at $0.37
You pay $0.37 per token. NO wins if the question resolves NO.
Where the price comes from
Each market has a fixed-product market maker holding YES and NO tokens. Buying one side removes it from the pool, which raises its price and lowers the other side's. Large trades therefore pay a worse average price, that is price impact, and the trade panel shows it before you sign.
#ammFees
Total trading fee is 1.50%: 1.00% protocol, 0.25% market creator, 0.25% liquidity. Network transaction costs are separate.
#feesNon-custodial by construction
Your USDC and your positions stay in your wallet or in the market contracts. The interface only reads Arc and prepares transactions for you to sign; it cannot move your funds.
#non-custodial